Advanced Budgeting Forecasting Techniques Using Excel Training Class

Program Agenda:
Day One
Budgets in Today's International Business Environment
-The Organizational Planning Framework
-The Product / Information / Decision Support Cycle
-The recognition of risk in models
-Using budget models for simulation purposes
-The drive toward Shareholder Value (EVA??)

The Strategic Plan
-The purpose of planning and budgeting in business
-Defining the strategic approach to business planning
-Building the strategic planning model
-Defining strategic assumptions using the Eight Strategic Assumptions
-Various strategic and tactical approaches to business planning
-Defining the Decision-Support Model: The Mission Critical Success Factor Matrix

The Business Plan
-The Nature of the Business Plan
-Development of Tactical Assumptions: Identification of Drivers, Dominos, and Wildcards
-Defining the Tactical Approach to objective achievement
-Defining the resources required: Application of the Mission Critical Success Factor Matrix

Day Two

Approaches to Budget Development
-Zero-Based Budgeting
-Rolling Budgets
-Cash Budgeting
-Activity-Based Budgeting

Analyzing the Applicability of Historical Data Using Excel??
-Recognizing the basic patterns inherent in financial data
-Using the Exploratory Data Analysis tools available in Excel??
-Development of Time Series Models
-Using Regression Analysis as a predictor and estimator
-Mastering Exponential Smoothing as an EDA tool
-Validation of Time Series Models

Using Activity-Based Budgeting
-Developing the ABB application model
-Budgeting for processes rather than departments
-Defining Cost Drivers
-Defining Key Activities
-Development of ABB Cost Standards
-Development of the ABB Model

The Budget Model
-Types of Business Models: Time Series v. Causal
-Qualitative v. Quantitative Models
-Designing Models that Support Business Strategy Horizons.

Steps in Building Financial Models
-The Nine-Step Model Development Framework
-The rules of strategic thinking
-Identification of Forecast Validation Criterion
-Determination of Model and Forecast Horizons
-Validation of Models and Forecasts

Day Four

Optimization Techniques in Models Using Excel??
-Basic Structure of All Optimization Models
-Different Forms and Applications of Optimization Models
-Developing a Financial Optimization Model
-Performing Sensitivity Analysis of an Optimization Model
-Interpreting the Solution of an Optimization Model to a Non-technical Manager.

Determination of Business Trends, Cycles and Seasonality
-Understanding the inter-relationship among trends, cycles and seasonality
-Use Excel?? to calculate ,business trends, business cycles and the seasonality factor
-Using the seasonality factor in forecasting
-Using the seasonality factor in interpreting the forecast variances

Sensitivity Analysis in Financial Models Using Excel??
-Appreciate the Meaning and Importance of Sensitivity Analysis
-Developing "What-if" Scenarios in Your Financial or Operational Models
-Using the Excel tools "Scenario and Goal Seek"

Probabilistic Models and Monte Carlo Theory Using Excel?? Add-ons
-Addressing Risk Assessment in Financial Models
-Benefits of Using Probabilistic Modeling
-Demonstration of Probabilistic Modeling using Crystal Ball??